Sunrise on Solar, Sunset on Fossil Fuels: Powering Growth through a Just Energy Transition

The global power transition is moving from a debate over whether renewable energy can compete with fossil fuels to a more difficult question: how rapidly growing clean-energy systems can be translated into reliable, affordable and inclusive power systems while existing fossil-fuel assets are progressively retired, repurposed or displaced.
This challenge is particularly important for emerging and developing economies. Indonesia is considering renewable-energy expansion at unprecedented scale, including an ambition to deploy 100 GW of solar, while confronting questions around electricity demand growth, solar costs, grid readiness, investment and institutional coordination. Pakistan, meanwhile, is experiencing rapid growth in distributed solar and prosumer participation against a power system characterised by long-term fossil-fuel commitments, capacity-payment pressures and the need to consider early retirement or repurposing of coal and other thermal assets.

Together, these experiences illustrate a wider Global South challenge. The energy transition cannot be treated simply as the addition of renewable megawatts. The sunrise of solar and distributed generation must be accompanied by changes in grids, electricity markets, regulation, storage, investment frameworks and institutional coordination. At the same time, countries require credible pathways for the sunset of fossil-fuel generation without undermining energy security, affordability, fiscal stability or development objectives.
The proposed COP31 dialogue will bring these dimensions together, connecting practical experiences from Indonesia and Pakistan with perspectives from the wider Global North and South. It will shift the discussion from renewable-energy ambition towards the institutional, financial and political economy conditions required to implement and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.

Objective:
The event aims to identify practical pathways through which emerging economies can accelerate solar and distributed-generation deployment while simultaneously managing the decline of fossil-fuel-based electricity generation.
Specifically, the dialogue will:

• examine the regulatory, market and institutional reforms required to translate ambitious renewable-energy targets into implementation;
• explore how distributed generation, utility-scale solar, energy storage and flexible grids can contribute to growing electricity demand while maintaining affordability and system reliability;
• identify approaches for managing the retirement, reduced utilisation or repurposing of coal and other fossil-fuel assets;
• examine how governments, utilities, industry, investors and development partners can better coordinate implementation;
• assess the financing and risk-sharing arrangements required to support both clean-energy expansion and fossil-fuel transition; and
• identify areas for stronger North-South and South-South cooperation on finance, technology, knowledge and institutional capacity.